April 2024 - Market Overview - Macro Gut-Punch and Post-halving highs.

PREMIUM NEWSLETTER FOR PAYING SUBSCRIBERS (Released every Thursday each week).

Before we crack into the fleshy parts of this week’s newsletter…

Here’s a meme Tweeted (X’d) by none other than Elon Musk for your enjoyment

Another Sideways month builds the pressure…

A quick brief - 

• The Chart that scared the crap out of me!

• War. What is it good for…

• End of the World for Altcoins or reversal zone?

• What to do if overexposed to Alts

• The exact gameplan we are using right now to position for the next leg. Bull reversal is likely.

I also cover

• Major Altcoin developments for the week, including ARB unlock

• Spot Premium has returned. It consistently marks the bottom 

• Bitcoin ETF outflows are the the new counter indicator 

Let’s crack in!

I’m going to reveal the exact gameplan we are sharing with our Mastermind clients to conquer this period of the market…

Firstly, I want to share with you how we got here and the alpha you’ll need to navigate these waters if you’re an Altcoin heavy investor

Grab a cup of coffee because this is going to blow your mind

Recently, one chart had me really worried that something big was coming…

GOLD broke $2000 and didn’t look back. Whenever the shiny rock breaks an All Time High and goes on a major run, everyone should be on alert 🚩

It long has been an early warning system for geopolitical instability and bubbling economic turmoil

Then, we got our answer. Iran and Israel appear on the brink of war. 

Some might say, “War in the Middle East…what’s new?”

This conflict has the potential to have Nuclear powers facing off in a war that could spread not just regionally, but globally.

An immediate effect is - investors panic. They go defensive and sell what we call “risk assets” to free up capital

A second knock on effect is the expectation OIL prices will rise significantly from disruption in the region, and send inflation surging globally once again.

This multiplier is viewed as bearish for “risk assets” (Crypto and Stocks) because it implies Central Banks are unlikely to loosen monetary policy, as most are expecting sometime before the US election. 

In recent times, Bitcoin has been correlated to Gold and not Stocks, however, we know this can change, and right now Bitcoin is trading more like a risk asset again so we need to be conscious of that

As an investor it's important to step back and know when to be in a defensive posture and where patience is the best course of action

Rising DXY (US Dollar), rising US Treasury Yields, and spiking VIX (S&P Volatility Index) is the trinity of evil for crypto prices.

Important to note, that in 2020 BTC led the Covid crash and also the Ukraine war sell-off prior to major markets following suit. It also was the fastest horse out of the fire.

Therefore, Bitcoin may be telling us what is to come, and if war is averted…the drop may be finished.

War. What is it good for?

Let’s touch on this quickly.

We’ve had another taste of WW3. A scenario that has reared its ugly head far too often over the last half decade.

I want to be clear that I find talking about war in an investing sense distasteful but there are patterns that emerge from modern history that we identified for the Ukraine-Russia conflict that are worth mentioning for your own positioning

The saying “Sell the Drums, Buy the Cannons” is strangely accurate.

See chart below

The psychology of fear prior to an outcome is a strong driver to remove risk, then once the news drops, markets have more information and confidence if they wish move back in 

While we could go really deep on this topic, I’m not sure that is entirely useful

What is important for investors to know is, these periods are often incredible buy opportunities if you understand the bigger macro trend

We should remain hopeful for a positive outcome, which I think is the probable one, and focus on the bigger picture of liquidity expansion and Bitcoin’s supply shock.

In this instance, barring the outbreak of WW3, Bitcoin is in a BULL MARKET, and with altcoins seeing a drawdown of up to 50% we are at an extreme value point even if we chop for another month or two.


The State of play 😬

The main reason you are seeing so much fear right now is because people are overallocated to altcoins…

Crypto Consulting Institute’s founder, Joe Shew and head analyst, Sam MacDonald, will be jumping on a live webinar to reveal…

• Our Top 5 On-Chain data sets for picking the Bitcoin top.

• The Top 3 Technical Analysis Tools we are using to predict the future.

• A Detailed Look at a 4 Phase Investment concept that’s played out in crypto and other markets since the early 20th century!

• Top Tips on How to Forecast The Bitcoin Peak.

• And When is Altcoins Season actually coming… With What Altcoin Investment Opportunities We Are Looking At!

If you’d like to join, simply email YES to [email protected] we will send you a Google Calendar invite and some more details.

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