Balancing a Tailored Profit Portfolio: The 3 Risk Profiles!

I wanted to take a moment to reflect on Anzac Day and pay tribute to  the men and women that served in the Australian Defense Forces. I wish for nothing but peace and harmony in the world, especially with the tariff ‘war’ currently happening…

April has been quite the rollercoaster month for crypto! At the time of writing the portfolio breakdown release last month, Bitcoin was on the verge of breaking out of multi-month downtrend resistance...
Until it didn’t!

I mentioned having USDT in reserve to catch the potential of lower bids, which we saw. Remember this and it will serve you well…. 

The tariff ‘war’ between the US and China created huge uncertainty and spared no risk asset class, such as crypto. Bitcoin April highs spiked to $88,700 before falling to lows of $74,600, a 16% change in a month! 

In the last couple of days  we have now seen a massive shift in momentum and sentiment, with a conclusive breakout of the downtrend (white line) and a close above the 200 day moving average (red line), one of the most significant technical analysis indicators.

This is on the back of recent comments by Trump that he is looking at ‘substantially’ reducing the current tariff rate of 145%. Nothing is conclusive as of yet and it may take a long time to sort this out, however, it is clear that the market knows the current rate is not sustainable and welcomes Trump’s shift in stance.

Gold prices have been loving this uncertainty, continuing to print new all time highs, however, it doesn’t have the unique digital qualities that Bitcoin does and the market cap is currently sitting at 8% of Gold… this can’t be overlooked.

Whilst the potential shift in tariffs is having a positive impact on crypto prices, there’s other forces at play that have pushed prices sky high in the past and will most likely do the same again.

In a recent webinar with Head Crypto Analyst at Real Vision, Jamie Coutts, we uncover exactly this and share our price forecasts for Bitcoin in this cycle

I do hope that Trump quickly becomes more reasonable with China, not just for financial reasons…

A seminal study by Harvard's Belfer Center led by Graham Allison examined 16 historical cases over the past 500 years where a rising power challenged a ruling power. The stats are pretty wild!

• War broke out in 12 of 16 cases.

• Peaceful transitions occurred in 4 of 16 cases.

Where War Occurred:

1. Peloponnesian War – Athens (rising) vs. Sparta (established), 5th century BCE

2. Anglo-Dutch Wars – Dutch Republic (rising) vs. England (established), 17th century

3. War of the Spanish Succession – France (rising) vs. Habsburg Spain and allies

4. Napoleonic Wars – Revolutionary France (rising) vs. multiple European powers

5. Franco-Prussian War – Prussia/Germany (rising) vs. France (established), 1870

6. World War I – Germany (rising) vs. Britain and France (established)

7. World War II – Germany and Japan (rising) vs. Britain, US, and others

8. Russo-Japanese War – Japan (rising) vs. Russia (established), 1904

9. Thirty Years’ War – Sweden and France challenging Habsburg power

10. Austro-Prussian War – Prussia (rising) vs. Austria (established), 1866

11. Second Punic War – Carthage (rising) vs. Rome (established)

12. Crimean War – Russia (rising) vs. Britain and France

Peaceful Transitions:

1. United States overtaking Britain in the late 19th/early 20th century – Avoided war, aided by shared culture and diplomacy

2. The Cold War – USSR (rising) vs. US (established), never escalated to direct war

3. Rise of the US relative to the Soviet Union post-WWII – Peaceful decline of USSR

4. Germany rising within the EU (post-WWII to present) – Managed peacefully through institutions

Historically, 75% of the time, when a rising power has challenged a dominant one, the result was war.

25% of the time, it was avoided, often through strong diplomacy, economic interdependence, or mutual deterrence (like nuclear weapons in the Cold War).

Is the situation between China and the US any different? Let’s have a look.

China vs. United States: Thucydides’ Trap in the 21st Century

Historical Parallels

• Strategic rivalry: Like Germany vs. Britain pre-WWI, economic and military competition coupled with rising nationalism.

• Trade and tech wars: Mirrors the economic rivalry between Britain and the Dutch Republic in the 17th century.

• Proxy conflicts: Tensions visible in Taiwan, South China Sea, and through influence in Africa and Latin America (similar to Cold War proxy states).

Deterrents to War

• Nuclear weapons: Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) makes direct war far costlier than in historical precedents.
  

• Economic interdependence: US and China remain deeply entwined economically — annual bilateral trade over $600 billion.
  

• International norms and institutions: UN, WTO, and international law constrain aggressive action, though these are increasingly contested.

Flashpoints

War Likelihood (2025 Outlook)

While history shows that 75% of such power transitions end in war, modern nuclear deterrence and global interdependence make a Cold War 2.0 scenario between the US and China far more probable than a direct, large-scale military conflict.

That said — Taiwan remains the single greatest flashpoint, and history teaches us that localised crises can spiral if not managed with strategic discipline.

I think we need to all be aware of this and watch closely as to how things unfold! If this becomes more of a concern we will look deeper into the data on how this will likely impact crypto…. Until then, let’s keep our focus on what is… Bitcoin being BULLISH!

The weekly chart shows that Bitcoin, if it holds that current levels ahead of the Monday close, is shaping up to enter mega-bull mode again, finishing the week above the 21MA.

Note the circles on the image above are what happened last time!

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