How to Maximize your Results in a Bull Market. Timing and Tools.

PREMIUM NEWSLETTER FOR PAYING SUBSCRIBERS (Released every Thursday each week).

Today’s TLDR:

- Has the Bull Market Begun or is it almost over?

- Timing your exit.

- The only Altcoin Dashboard you will need

- OnChain Silver Bullet to Keep you ahead of the Herd

Hey team,

In this edition I’ll discuss a simplified approach to help you maximize your GAINS in this Bull Market.

I’ll introduce FREE tools anyone can use to time their exit, which 99% of people don’t know about.

Slight reality check…

Make peace with the idea that you are NOT going to buy the perfect bottom and won’t sell the perfect top.

Investors would do well to take the majority of profits over time in the meat of the move, especially when it feels uncomfortable and try not to get stuck on arbitrary targets on a chart.

When the pan gets too hot, turn down the heat.

We do this via 3- data based tools

• Time based analysis of Bitcoin cycles

• Altcoin Speculation Index   

• Onchain Analysis

More advanced *(not covered here)

• Macro

• Liquidity

• Technical Analysis

Advanced strategies can be applied at the extremes to giga-charge returns but we’ll leave that for another day.

Let’s break down the main premise for a second…

For Bitcoin. Well and truly. For Alts, we’ll get to that further down…

Let’s first look at the Big Daddy.

In my view, a “Bull Market” is when Buyers are in absolute control = sustained upwards price action marked by higher-highs and higher-lows on major time frames.

It could be argued that Bitcoin has been in a bull market since it reclaimed the 200 Week Moving Average back in late 2023 and formed its first significant higher-high. (Two yellow circles below)

According to my cycle map, Bitcoin entered a true Bull Market when it confirmed above the 2021 all time highs.

It then exited the 201 day “post-halving intermediate phase” indicated by the yellow box on my chart.

If Bitcoin follows the 331 day bull market playbook, then its peak will come between now and October 2025 (green box). The asterisk will be: does expanding liquidity and the business cycle impact the longevity of Bitcoin’s bull run?

We will see. Best to remain clear eyed here. The 4 year cycle isn’t broken until it is.

To summarise, Bitcoin is roughly halfway through its most rewarding period so the best should still be ahead of us.

Sophisticated investors will be formulating a time based take-profit plan now until December factoring in the length of prior bull markets, momentum signals (still quite cool), and account for a possible lengthening of the cycle due to liquidity.

To bookend this…

The proximity to the next halving is the most accurate signal for when the next Bear market low should hit (520 days give or take from the halving). See the red line on the chart below.

It tells us Bitcoin will likely peak out and enter a new bear market sometime between now and next September. Therefore, we have a range where profit taking should get more aggressive over time as the risk of a bear market increases.

Anyone can set this up on their Tradingview for free. 

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