July 2024 - TRUMP EFFECT. Black Swan bottoms the Crypto market. The Rally Starts Now

PREMIUM NEWSLETTER FOR PAYING SUBSCRIBERS (Released every Thursday each week).

A Quick Brief - 

• Near Miss on “Pro-Bitcoin” Trump likely hands him the US Presidency. Markets are now pricing this in 
  

• Implications for financial markets for 2024 and 2025 under a TRUMP admin - Hint - It’s great for Crypto!

• Trump selects Bitcoin investor, J.D Vance as his Vice President Pick
  

• The Big 3 - UPDATED forecast. SOLANA, ETHEREUM & BITCOIN are set to fly

Let’s crack in!

We saw a seminal moment in history this week, and it matters for your portfolio!

Let me explain why…

The attempted assassination of US Pres. frontrunner Donald Trump, marks a low point in modern American politics and a near-miss for financial markets

A Black Swan?

Putting our investor hat on: had the likely next President, and first Pro-crypto one at that, died via a horrific on-camera slaying, markets would have gone through the floor.

It would have left us questioning also, the immediate stability of the United States Union.

Bitcoin, Crypto, Gold, and Stocks initially took a dive, then rallied significantly since it was apparent Trump was not mortally wounded.

Bitcoin’s reaction was a move of 14% to the upside 

Markets hate uncertainty.

The miraculous escape, encapsulated by the now iconic image below, appears to have had the opposite effect

It gave markets certainty that Trump’s economic policies are expected to happen as his poll numbers soared higher

We saw a similar effect with voters after the failed assassination attempt on Ronald Reagan in 1981, seeing a 20% bump in the polls.

In terms of geopolitical and economic stability, the world dodged a bullet…

and at a human level, I think we should all be happy DJT is alive and well.  


A Black Swan you say… What is it?

Here's the lowdown:

A Black Swan event in financial markets refers to an extremely rare and unpredictable event that has a severe negative impact. These events are often looked at as unexplainable before they happen, but after the fact, people tend to say they should have been foreseen.

Think COVID, or the 2008 Housing bubble collapse

Here are the key characteristics of a Black Swan event:

• Rarity: They are so uncommon that they are difficult to imagine or plan for.

• Severe Impact: When they do occur, they cause significant disruption and financial losses.

• Hindsight Bias: After the event, people tend to believe it was predictable, even though it wasn't.

Even though Black Swan events can't be predicted, understanding the concept can help investors be more aware of the risks involved and take steps to mitigate them by diversifying their portfolios and avoiding excessive leverage.

In summary, while it did not cause a major market crash - it caused a psychological one. Had DJT Trump not survived, we speculate there would have been market turmoil and unrest between Red and Blue States not seen since the Civil War.

Now you're in the know!

The Fall out and what happens now?

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