September 2023 - 2019 revisited. In our September Cycle Analysis Special, we outline how the patient find the perfect spot to buy & the SECRET behind the 4-year cycle (Paid Edition)

PREMIUM NEWSLETTER FOR PAYING SUBSCRIBERS (Released every Thursday).

This edition’s Fast Brief (TLDR)

- Why 2023 is the least risky time to buy Bitcoin in history

- Finding the BEST entry price as an investor.

- Our 4-Point Strategy for Bull Market Success

- What are we doing…BUYING, SELLING or HOLDING?

- Cycle similarities & the SECRET behind the 4-year cycle

- CRYSTAL BALL. The NASDAQ after the 2008 financial crisis vs Bitcoin

And released the Top 10 Portfolio as signals that can be delivered directly to your phone!

If you haven’t already signed up at just $14.99/month…let me share what you have been missing out on so far…!

We called the local Bitcoin top…

Made 8.2% profit on the QNT trade…

Took 8.7% profit off the table with one STX trade…

And our Optimism trade is sitting at a tidy 11% gain so far!

Let’s run some quick maths….

If you had put just $1k into each 3 of these trades above, not including Bitcoin, you would have made a profit of…. You’d have already paid off the first YEAR of subscription.

Imagine if it was $10k!

I want to dive right in.

Are you frustrated with the market right now? 🤯

No…

Are you Absolutely FREAKING OUT after booting up TradingView or refreshing your Coinstats portfolio?

Take a breath.

Joe loves to say that Crypto investing is a game of psychology with yourself. Those that persevere reap the rewards

Timing is everything.

It’s a title fight, 🥊 and you will get smacked around the chops from time to time…

Then, just after you’ve thrown in the towel, guess what happens more often than not?

Full market reversal.

I’ll level with you.

For that to happen before 2024, we need a catalyst

A US Spot ETF fits that bill, and it would unlock possibly trillions of dollars directly into the market, but for now that remains elusive.

Don’t lose focus ☀️

there is a 75% chance of this happening in 2023 according to Bloomberg ETF analysts after the Grayscale court victory, and 95% probability by the end of 2024

This is the mentally challenging gap-year bridging the bear market to the Bitcoin halving

It also doesn’t help that we have a metaphorical asteroid-belt of macro planet killers zooming by us

It reminds me of 2019: the rallies of disbelief, the sharp drawdowns and the low liquid chop

Some called it the “crab market.” A very apt term, and it suits what we are seeing.

In 2019/20 we had Grayscale and Microstrategy bootstrapping us into the halving…this time, we have Blackrock

Same, same, but different.

It’s coming, but not everyone has the fortitude and patience to stay the course

If you’re still here after bear market lows then you are already a survivor

Be brave enough to believe that there hasn’t been a less risky time in history to invest in Bitcoin

It may not feel this way but consider where we've come from and how much this market has matured.

When I began in 2017 and experienced $20,000 to 3k, there was no Microstrategy, there was no Grayscale, KPMG, El Salvador and there certainly wasn’t a BlackRock.

Remember what an ETF did to the Gold market once approved…

These entities now underpin the market. It lends legitimacy and weight.

Too, the Bitcoin network has never been more secure or geographically decentralised

Further, investors simply do not want to part with their coins. A near 69% of circulating supply is now being held for 1 year or longer.

Back then, and in prior cycles, there was a very real feeling/chance that the market wouldn’t recover…but it did.

The point is, we now have the biggest capital allocators in the world wanting to buy Bitcoin and by extension Crypto, and if you dive deep enough you’ll see that the macro is aligning to enable a broad shift into these assets.

This Bitcoin led Bull Market is shaping up to be the biggest we’ve ever seen

We may be emerging from the “they fight you stage” and into the “we win stage” but for now, we sit tight.

I’m going to share my insights on buying, selling or holding

What we are focussed on right now is positioning

In simple terms that means lowering our average buy price and pouncing on any major drawdowns from a region we have identified

INVESTORS ASSEMBLE. 

How the patient find a GREAT spot to buy…

The chart below from ARK shows us what the average cost-basis is for Bitcoin investors (Realised Price) and the location of the 200 Week Moving Average

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