Top 10 Cryptos for August

The most difficult time to be writing a newsletter is at the time of a big macro release, US interest rates.

They went ahead and raised from 500-525 up another 0.25% to the current 525-550 basis points. We knew this was coming as we like to use different data sets to forecast these events. The link below is one that you should bookmark. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html.

Jerome Powell, head of the Federal Reserve has been consistent with his comments around a 2% inflation target. The last recording was 3% on the 12th July, down from the prior recording of 4.1% on 13th June. A continuation of rate rise signals a couple of things. One, they believe the economy is strong enough to handle it…. You only have to look at the soaring S&P500 and NASDAQ prices to agree with this, secondly, inflation is still too high.
The next inflation rate release is on 10th August, be sure to add this into your calendar. Although markets price things already, their conclusive data still has an impact. The current forecast is 2.8%. I get all of this data from here (Please bookmark) - https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi

Whilst some of this may go over your head, it’s actually pretty simple when you take a minute to understand it. Here’s a quick crash course to pull you up to speed. You really need to be across this stuff to be a successful investor, so time to level up.

The Relationship Between Inflation and Interest Rates Explained

Inflation and interest rates are two of the most important economic indicators. They interact in a number of ways, and understanding this interaction is essential for understanding the economy.

Inflation is the rate at which prices for goods and services are rising. Interest rates are the cost of borrowing money. When inflation is high, it means that the prices of goods and services are rising quickly. This can make it difficult for people to afford to buy the things they need, and it can also lead to economic instability.

To combat inflation, central banks often raise interest rates. This makes it more expensive for people to borrow money, which slows down the economy. As a result, demand for goods and services falls, which helps to bring inflation under control.

However, raising interest rates can also have negative consequences. For example, it can make it more difficult for businesses to borrow money, which can lead to job losses. It can also make it more expensive for people to buy a home, which can dampen the housing market.

Therefore, central banks need to be careful when raising interest rates. They need to raise rates enough to slow down inflation, but not so much that they damage the economy.

The relationship between inflation and interest rates is complex, and it is constantly evolving.

Here are some additional points about the interaction between inflation and interest rates:

• Inflation and interest rates tend to move in opposite directions. When inflation is high, interest rates are typically raised to slow down the economy and bring inflation under control. When inflation is low, interest rates are typically lowered to stimulate the economy.

• The relationship between inflation and interest rates is not always direct. There are other factors that can affect interest rates, such as the state of the economy and the level of unemployment.

• The relationship between inflation and interest rates can be affected by government policies. For example, if the government decides to increase spending, this can lead to inflation. In order to combat inflation, the central bank may need to raise interest rates.

To let you know, the above explanation was pulled straight from AI (Google Bard). I recommend utilising this resource everywhere you can on your investing journey. It can help in a number of ways from simplifying a complex topic to summarising investing books and even fundamental analysis of projects, as I have recently shown our VIP clients! It still has some work to do on the investing strategy side of things… Something we are working on in the background!

As all good analysts do, I will say, the market can go either way. Helpful… I know! But where I can help is with strategy talk. I follow a principle of, ‘if this then that’. Which simply means if a certain outcome is hit, then this is the action that I would like to take. So I will touch on this in the portfolio balancing section below. Our VIP and Mastermind clients will know this… Setting a plan is a solid framework, when it comes to actioning the plan, it should always be flexible as you receive more relevant data.

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Our current portfolio of Cryptocurrencies was chosen for technical outlook, narrative capture and market sentiment.

*Please refer to the Technical Terms Glossary at the end of this section for an explanation of technical terms.

All prices below are current at the time of writing - $US
Date of completion 27th July 2023

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