Top 10 Cryptos for July 2024

If you are feeling ‘crypto fatigue’ at the minute, I’d suggest you are going about your investing the wrong way and likely need to shift your market perspective.

I am watching the alarming comments in mainstream crypto groups and know it’s a sign of lack of strategy, emotional reactions to market conditions and an ultra short term focus.

Investors are attempting to maximise every single opportunity and squeeze every last dollar out so they can retire this cycle….

Whilst I am all for maximising opportunities, at some point it can become unproductive. Over-trading has been the biggest killer for people, jumping from one green candle to the next, only to witness diminishing portfolio balances.

Many crypto investors crash and burn, even after creating some really significant wealth through the process ... .and hand most, if not all, of the money they created back.

After investing in crypto for 10 years now, please let me share some simple tips with you to ensure your success. Learn from my lessons so you don’t have to go through the experiences, too.

Don’t jump at the first green candle: When the market has been downtrending for a while, investors want to pick the ‘bottom’ for maximum upside. But the dip keeps dipping and most people find themselves already allocated or positions chopped away with stop losses.

There’s 2 strategies that you can implement. I’d recommend both…

Strategy 1: Looking for extreme bottoms at oversold levels on daily, if not weekly timeframes (not 4hr). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a great tool for this on a platform like TradingView. If you do allocate at this time, make sure it is a small allocation and you aren’t trying to double your entire portfolio overnight. Slow and steady wins the race.

The image below is of the Bitcoin RSI on a daily timeframe. You can see if you looked at this indicator only and bought extreme oversold levels (below 30) and sold at extreme overbought levels (70+), you’d be laughing all the way to the bank… wait what are those things again.

This can also be used in conjunction with Fibonacci levels to see where they match up. 0.618 and especially 0.786 are usually on the money. The below image shows how we hit the 0.618 in the 2021 pullback on the nose, which also coincided with sub 30 RSI levels.

Strategy 2: Confirmation trading. Once there is confirmation of a trend reversal with a higher high, higher low formation on a daily basis and key overhead resistance levels and moving averages are broken, then it is time to increase allocation. Sure you may not capture the extreme returns, but you will likely save a ton of funds if the dip keeps dipping. The 2 blue lines highlighted in the image below will help you to understand the trend reversal pattern.

Don’t take on too much risk too soon: If you jump  too soon and too aggressively into high risk assets, you’ll likely bleed out value against lower risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The below chart is Pepe/Eth. You can see after the Pepe top, it has bled out against Eth for a long time. It has finally started to break out against Eth again, making it a nice looking trade. The confirmation trade was on the daily close on the 21 moving average (blue line) as the trend reversal had set in, which you can see from the uptrending white line.

Play the long game: Your portfolio should be primarily long term focused (60%+) and you can manage the volatility with a smaller allocation. If you are swing trading your whole portfolio in the hope to fast track your results, I’d suggest going back and having an actual look at your results against if you’d just held and done nothing with the majority of your investment.

How much can you start the next cycle with: If we do have another 4 year cycle, which is likely at this stage, then it is worth thinking about what you can start the next one with. If you play the middle ground and don’t try shooting out the lights on every trade and take on way less risk, you can make a fortune in the next cycle. Put too much pressure on yourself to do it all in your first cycle, you may find yourself in a disappointing starting place next time around. Pace yourself a bit more and stop trying to sprint a marathon, otherwise you’ll fall flat on your face before the halfway stage.

The crypto market is volatile and it can feel uncomfortable when your portfolio goes fairly deep in the red. But if you manage some risk and look at the data, it will help you see past the urge to sell the bottom. Markets are designed to break the weak. Be strong, look to the future.

Our current portfolio of Cryptocurrencies was chosen for technical outlook, narrative capture and market sentiment.

*Please refer to the Technical Terms Glossary at the end of this section for an explanation of technical terms.

All prices below are current at the time of writing - $US
Date of completion 26/06/2024

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