Top 10 Cryptos for May 2024

I’m not one for ‘bagging out’ other crypto ‘experts’ who are sharing thoughts with their followers, but this one topped it for me, so I have to say something in an attempt to put a stop to it…

The biggest challenge I find in this space for investors is the amount of information that is shared… Of which, how much of it is from informed investors/educators who actually know what they are talking about…. Not a lot!

‘Short the Bitcoin ETFs’.

A client of mine checked in to let me know that another publication they follow (I won’t disclose the name), was ultra bearish, telling their investors to short the crypto market, using ETF launches and macro conditions as the driver…. 🤣

This is where I tell investors to look at the DATA, rather than listen to someone's opinion.

On Friday, US time, when the Bitcoin halving occurred and 450 new Bitcoins were issued that day (and for the next 210,000 blocks), Blackrocks' ETF alone accumulated 456 Bitcoin. Now if you were to know nothing about crypto, you’d know that supply and demand laws come into play, especially with an asset that has a finite supply that is programmatically released to market in an anti-inflationary way.

As of the time of writing this, the 11 Bitcoin ETFs (in the US alone) hold 839,036 Bitcoin. This doesn’t take into consideration the imminent Hong Kong Bitcoin ETF launch on April 30th, Australia's first Bitcoin ETF approval and other developments with the UK starting with Exchange-traded notes (ETN) launch.

That’s 4% of the total Bitcoin supply from 11 ETFs. Not including Microstrategy who hold 214,000 Bitcoin alone! Over 1% of total supply.

It is also worth noting that an estimated 19-23% of Bitcoin has either been lost or mismanaged. So when you factor this in….

WHO’S SHORTING THE ETFs NOW….!?

Let’s not stop there…. After Bitcoins halving the inflation rate is now less than gold, an asset with a 11.2X market cap valuation. This doesn’t factor in the manipulated supply being controlled by gold miners or when we start asteroid mining. The shift is coming… Oh wait, it’s already started.

Whilst I cannot deny there has recently been macro uncertainty with Israel and Iran, it seems that this has been quickly contained. If this incident were to resurface in a more extreme way, then I would be looking to manage risk, until then, I will continue to watch Bitcoin posture for an attack of the all time highs again.

The only other angle that I would consider to agree with the comment of shorting the market is interest rate cuts….

The market ‘turnover’ will potentially come when the FED starts to cut interest rates as this would indicate that something has gone seriously wrong, at a time when things have stabilised.

Personal spending figures are 0.5% above forecast and retail sales are up, with inflation holding steady, rate cuts and a recession are likely multiple quarters away. The DATA on CME highlights the probability of the first cut coming in September time and we may have 2 cuts in 2024 at most.

So, rather than shorting the market here, the data shows me that we are likely to see a marginal rise in inflation and an increase in asset prices as optimistic investors start to pile in again.
Save shorting for when the obvious event actually occurs.

Now I will add a balanced argument because only a fool looks one way in markets….

Something I am watching closely is if we are in a distribution phase of the Wyckoff pattern. You can learn more about this in our Webinar that we recently launched. Here’s the link to register for free: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/bitcoin-top

2 additional things that I am watching closely is a retest of the 100 day moving average (yellow line) around $57K, which is typical and healthy for longer term market expansion and also the possibility of testing the uptrend (white diagonal line) from the start of the move back in October 2023. Depending on when/if this was triggered, it would put the price of Bitcoin in the mid 50K region.

If you are a client of CCI’s you will know that the price movements are nothing to be concerned with as you will have a proactive strategy already in place to capitalise regardless of the market direction.

So all I will say is eliminate opinionated crypto ‘educators’ and turn up the volume on DATA…. As it never lies!

On that note, CCI’s Head Analyst, Sam and myself just finished delivering a free 2 hour webinar on Forecasting the Bitcoin Top with a number of key datasets we are watching closely. 

If you haven’t already watched it, click the link below to learn more and register now for free.

https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/bitcoin-top

*(If you are a client we have made a slightly different version of the webinar just for you. You’ll be able to get the link in the VIP and Graduates group).

Our current portfolio of Cryptocurrencies was chosen for technical outlook, narrative capture and market sentiment.

*Please refer to the Technical Terms Glossary at the end of this section for an explanation of technical terms.

*All prices below are current at the time of writing - $US

*Date of completion 25/04/2024

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