War-proofing Your Portfolio.

PREMIUM NEWSLETTER FOR PAYING SUBSCRIBERS (Released every Thursday each week).

Today’s TLDR:

- Peak geopolitical uncertainty

- It’s never as bad as you think. Position accordingly

- 3 TIPS to Bulletproof your portfolio

Hey team,

In this edition we face down the reality of constant Headline Risk and how to keep your portfolio in good shape for the bull market.

We face a hyper-frenzied news cycle where every tweet/headline can move your assets 10-20% at any moment. The whiplash can be frustrating and make you feel like throwing in the towel for calmer waters.

The geopolitical instability in the Middle East has paralysed markets - similar to Russia/Ukraine - until the tempo and implications were priced in.

Bear in mind the volatility and fear is not unique to Crypto, investors everywhere are tearing their hair out at seemingly 100 years of major events hitting us in the span of seemingly 5-10 years.

In the immediate term, capital is worried that the United States is about to publicly join the war and the supply chain disruption possibly ahead, causing a resurgence in inflation. 

Earlier in the week I put down the Top 3 headlines we don't want to see: 

a) Direct US involvement. US bases bombed.
b) Straight of Hormuz closes, disrupting energy and oil to the world
c) Nuclear weapons, radiation leak (any mention)

On the flipside, the Bullish reversal headlines we want to see:

a) Ceasefire talks
b) Iranian revolution
c) no headlines are good headlines 

Unfortunately, it looks like more bad headlines are looming…but we will cross that bridge when it comes.

Don’t miss the forest for the Trees.

Aside from the obvious geopolitical turmoil, has anything fundamentally changed?

I don’t think so. All paths lead to more liquidity and easing of financial conditions to at least the end of 2025.

See a chart with the flow of Central Bank rate cuts. It’s still early in this story and it’s a big reason why we think Bitcoin is headed to $120,000 sooner rather than later. 

Additionally we think markets are overacting like they so often do, and this “noise” too shall pass.

We need to look at the data. In previous conflicts such as the most recent Invasion of Ukraine, risk markets tend to fear the worst early, baking in the disruption during the initial phase only to rally as more information becomes known…

In essence…Sell the Drums and Buy the Cannons.

Why?

Markets hate uncertainty so once we have a clearer picture, even if it's bad, capital tends to buy the dip. It really hasn’t been the wrong choice ever in modern history.

Therefore, don’t be afraid to be a sensible buyer while everyone else is a seller because of “WW3.”

A funny diagram on Twitter perfectly sums up the situation.  

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