Bitcoin's 90th Minute - The Bottom Signs You've Been Waiting For (Premium)

Today's Core Points:

• Iran escalation triggers worst energy shock in modern history

• Bitcoin shows unusual resilience while markets panic

• 5 consecutive red monthly candles - a historical extreme signaling we're near the end

• The 3 macro charts that tell us what happens next

• Why the 90th minute is when you position, not panic

• My Personal Set-up

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Hey all,

The Middle East is on fire. Oil infrastructure is under attack. Supply chains are fracturing. And global markets are trying to figure out if this is another Tariff tantrum, or the beginning of something far worse….

Here's what I know: Bitcoin just printed its 5th consecutive red monthly candle, and rescued a 6th at the 11th hour. We've only seen this level of sustained selling a handful of times in Bitcoin's history—and each time marked the final stages of a bear cycle.

To grossly overuse sporting analogies, we're not in the first quarter anymore - we're not even at halftime. We're in the 90th minute..

Today, I'm walking you through 3 macro charts that I’m watching every morning to tell me the real story, and then I'm showing you the bottom signals that have historically marked the end of these cycles. Because if you understand where we are in the game, you'll know exactly what to do next.

Let's get into it.

The Macro Setup: Why This Week Matters

Without sounding hyperbolic, The Iran War has the potential to cause a global economic meltdown. That isn’t being over the top, it's reality - it’s why serious macro and geostrategists have long said the Strait of Hormuz is the end of the world. Disruption and destruction of energy flows of this scale marks a structural shift that I believe has and will have long term inflationary consequences no matter if the War ends tomorrow.

Here's what the charts are telling us right now:

Chart 1: WTI Crude Oil - The Energy Shock That Changes Everything

Oil spiked violently on the Iran news, breaking out of its consolidation range and testing resistance near $100.

What I'm watching:

• Above $100: Markets panic. Inflation fears accelerate. Risk assets get crushed.

• Below $90: Hormuz fears subside. We get a relief rally.

• Current price (~$97.85): Sitting right at the decision point.

The problem? WTI is telling us the market isn't convinced this is over. The Strait of Hormuz remains volatile and largely closed. This is a persistent issue, not a one-day spike.

Bottom line: Oil stays elevated = ongoing headwind for risk assets and inflation. But here's the thing—Bitcoin is holding up remarkably well given the circumstances. That's a signal, not noise.

Chart 2: S&P 500 - Sucker's Rally or Real Recovery?

The S&P bounced hard today as "buy the dip" money rushed back in. But look at the structure.

What the chart shows:

• Strong rally INTO the underside of broken support (now resistance)

• Similar pattern to prior corrections where dip buyers became exit liquidity

• 200 Day MA still overhead—clear that level and we're back in business

My read: This looks like a relief bounce, not a reversal. History shows it's never a straight path down, and these snapback rallies are often used as exit points by smarter money. The problem I see is we are very headline driven and I suspect sellers will call bluff and bake in expectations of a tough 6-12 months of inflation soon, also factoring that big tech AI buildout will be affected by energy, specifically Helium prices. I suspect S&P is starting a new corrective regime toward $6000.

What to watch: Headline changes (Trump and Iran ceasefire - Strait Reopens). A miracle like that could shoot stocks higher. Does the S&P reclaim its 200 Day MA with conviction? If yes, risk-on resumes. If not, we retest lows.

Chart 3: DXY (US Dollar Index) - The Flight to Liquidity

The Dollar is rallying toward $100 as capital tightens and inflation fears rise.

What this means:

• Money is flowing OUT of risk assets and INTO cash (liquidity squeeze)

• If Hormuz normalizes, DXY resumes its downtrend and inflation fears subside

• If not, expect more tightening and more selling across the board

The tell: DXY's next move will confirm whether this is a temporary shock or the beginning of a broader risk-off regime.

What This Means for Bitcoin

Here's where it gets interesting.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $68,100. It's down, yes—but it's not collapsing. It's not cascading. It's holding structure better than just about every other risk asset on the planet.

And that matters.

Because in the worst energy shock in modern history, Bitcoin is showing resilience after already facing a -50% drawdown. Can it go lower into record oversold territory? Yes, but according to history, the worst is behind us, not ahead of us.

But don't take my word for it. Let's look at the data.

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