Something shifted this month. After a long stretch of pressure, fear, and headlines pulling in every direction, the inflation print landed softer than expected and the market repriced almost overnight. That single data release changed the conversation around interest rates, and by extension the conversation around risk assets.
In this month's Market Overview we unpack what that shift actually means, why the cost of capital sits at the centre of it, and what the on chain picture is telling us underneath the price action. We also get honest about the psychology of this moment. Bottoms are uncomfortable by design, they take longer than anyone expects, and the investors who navigate them well are the ones working from data rather than from what they wish were true.
Inside the Full Video, We Walk Through
The inflation surprise: why softer numbers across the board eased the pressure on rates, and how quickly the market repriced once they landed.
Why the cost of capital matters most: the case that Bitcoin is rate sensitive above all else, and what falling yields would open up.
The supply story: what long term holders are doing, why they are not selling, and how that changes the supply and demand equation.
Reading the bottom: the weekly divergence forming around the two hundred week moving average, and why capitulation quietly weakens before it turns.
Our short term holder dashboard: a walk through the metrics we track, from the Mayer Multiple to funding rates, sentiment, and institutional flows.
The truth about institutional flows: how much Bitcoin ETFs and treasuries actually hold, and why the flow data tells an uncomfortable story about timing.
The two bucket portfolio: separating long term cycle holdings from actively traded positions, and why blurring the two is where most investors go wrong.
Watchlist discipline: how we assess the charts we are following, and why every position gets checked against the Bitcoin pair.
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