Welcome to this month's portfolio overview.

This edition covers portfolio balancing: how capital is weighted across a portfolio at this point in the cycle, and how that weighting is adjusted as conditions develop.

The market has spent an extended period in a tight range. Conditions like this one place the emphasis on positioning rather than activity, and the purpose of this overview is to set out how that positioning is structured across different types of investor.

Inside, Joe works through all three risk profiles, what has been adjusted since last month and the reasoning behind it, and the conditions being watched before anything changes again. The full breakdown is below for premium subscribers.

This Month's Focus: Compression, Conviction And One Adjustment

Four things we are watching, and what would change our view.

Bitcoin structure. The monthly candle closed above the 50 month moving average, the level Bitcoin has historically defended, with the only decisive breach coming during the FTX and Alameda period. On the weekly we sit below the 10 and we did print a close below the 200, but price has been broadly sideways since 8 June and momentum indicators are ticking up across timeframes. A weekly close above 65,000 would be the first meaningful confirmation. We are watching weekly closes, not daily noise.

The adjustment. The longer we spend in sideways compression, the lower the probability of a deep flush from here. Further downside is still possible, but we expect it to be muted in extent. That view has changed the weighting rather than the allocation: more of the stablecoin reserve is now assigned to the upper accumulation zone and less to the lower one. It is a shift in probabilities, not a prediction, and it moves as the data moves.

Liquidity. Volume through the current range is low while open interest is large. That combination can resolve in a sharp move in either direction. Sharp does not mean sustained. If your bids are already set through the ranges you want, a fast move works in your favour rather than against you, which is worth having in place if you are travelling or away from the screen.

Rotation and sectors. PAX Gold stays on the watchlist with no allocation until it gives a more decisive signal. Privacy remains one of the strongest performing sectors. Beyond that, altcoins stay on the bench until Bitcoin clears the 71,000 channel. They are highly volatile at this stage of the range and they can look strong one week and broken the next.

Until that channel clears convincingly on a weekly close, Bitcoin is the position.

Delivered to you at home.

A premium digital version of the retreat for those who cannot join us in person. Not a few loose recordings, but a structured online experience with an in depth workbook and implementation support alongside it.

A few of the areas we cover:

Guests this year include Toni Versic, James Check, James Coombes from Block Earner, and potentially Casa, the multi signature security providers.

Want the full details? Email [email protected] and we will send them through.