Welcome to this month's portfolio overview.

There is a fair bit of uncertainty in crypto right now, and our purpose this month is to replace that uncertainty with clarity.

Markets like this one feel slow. Price moves sideways, the headlines contradict each other, and patience starts to feel like inaction. It is not. This is the part of the cycle where the work you have already done either holds up under pressure or shows you exactly where the gaps are.

If your strategy is sound and your positioning is set, this is a period to step back, reset and let the plan do its job. Some of the best decisions you make this month will be the ones you choose not to make. And if you are not yet at that level of confidence, that gap is entirely closable. Confidence comes from taking action, but action done well comes from the right knowledge.

Four things we are watching, and what would change our view.

Macro. The Fed held rates in a nine to three vote, the dissenters citing ongoing inflation stickiness. The next decision is 48 days away. Until then, bond yields at both the short and long end, US dollar strength, oil and equity volatility are the inputs that matter most for crypto.

Bitcoin structure. Price is sitting at the 200 week moving average, a level Bitcoin has spent only 3 to 5 per cent of its existence below, and the monthly candle looks set to close above the 50 month moving average. Monthly momentum is flattening. Overhead resistance has not been cleared. We are watching weekly closes, not daily noise.

Supply. Holders beyond 155 days are not selling, and that cohort now holds close to 85 per cent of supply. ETF outflows peaked at roughly 600 per cent of daily issuance and have since fallen back towards normal.

Narratives. AI, data centres, space and quantum have all cooled. Memes were the worst hit. Privacy is the only sector up across the year.

Until resistance clears convincingly on a weekly close, patience is the position.