Newsletter Portfolio Balancing [October '26]

Welcome to this month's portfolio overview.

Sam steps in to present this edition, walking through the weightings Joe has put together and adding his own read on the charts underneath them. The two compare notes on this daily, and on this month’s positioning they are in the same place.

The market has come out of a 55% drawdown and is trying to turn. The 200 day moving average, the 52 week moving average, the short term holder cost basis and the ETF cost basis have all been recovered. One horizontal above us has not been, and that single level is doing most of the work in deciding what happens next.

What changes this month is the shape of the portfolios. For the first time in this sequence there is a case for holding altcoins alongside Bitcoin, and the reasoning behind which ones, at what size, and with what guardrails is the substance of the session.

TLDR

Who is presenting. Sam takes this edition, covering Joe’s weightings with his own commentary on the charts behind them.
Where the market sits. Out of a 55% drawdown and above most major moving averages, with one horizontal left to reclaim and a weekly close that decides it.
Bitcoin stays the core. Every profile keeps a Bitcoin floor. The floor is what changes between them, not whether Bitcoin is the base.
Altcoins are now on the table. Waiting for a broad altcoin season is the wrong frame. Some names have already run, and the Bitcoin pair chart is how we judge them.
Guardrails before conviction. Position caps, defined triggers and a maximum size set in advance are what stop a good idea turning into a lopsided portfolio.
Patience is still the position. This is not yet a market where you can throw darts at a dartboard. Slow accumulation, high standards, and no parting with Bitcoin until the setup earns it.