October 2025 - Cycle Shattered! Why it’s DEATH is a Goldmine for investors

PREMIUM NEWSLETTER FOR PAYING SUBSCRIBERS (Released every Thursday each week).

Today’s TLDR:

• Everything is GOLDEN

• Will Bitcoin Catchup?

• The 4-year Cycle is DEAD

• Where am I buying Bitcoin

Hey Crypto Crew,

Great to have you for this pivotal edition.

A quick reminder that because this is a 5 week month, we are releasing a macro edition today that I know you will find informative.

The 4 - Year Cycle, as we understood it, is fundamentally done.

I’m sure some of you are thinking…

“Sam, you’re just moving the goalposts!”

“You’re breathing pure hopium.”

Maybe but I’m just looking at the data. Aside from the time scale of the last cycle, not ONE of my topping signals is saying it is over. Just delayed.

If it was going to change then we’d find out Oct > Dec of 2025. Either the cycle has ended without a whimper or WE ARE SIMPLY IN SOMETHING DIFFERENT

The saying goes, when presented with new information we need to adjust our thesis. Embrace it!

Rewind to mid 2024 and there wouldn’t be a single investor that would have said “NO!” to a longer cycle so make peace with it because it’s looking more and more likely. It is really hard to see a world where everything is being debased, stocks are ripping, and debt is shooting higher and Bitcoin/Crypto is not seeing one of the biggest bull markets in history…

What frustrates people is the boredom and time based capitulation. This cycle has been massively disappointing for Crypto investors, while Bitcoin has had slower price movement as if in a much longer accumulation phase. 

Not exactly prime-time for a raging bull market and far from the storied gains of 2017/21.

The point is, volatility is compressing. It’s been 182 days since Bitcoin has had a 25%+ move within a 2 week period.

Bitcoin has behaved more like a maturing macro asset, devoid of retail euphoria, while Crypto has arguably been in a bear market. 

Something hasn’t added up for a while. Not since the ETFs and Trump was elected President.

Two months remain in 2025, but expectations are shattered and disbelief is everywhere. The consensus cycle culminating with parabolic highs has failed to eventuate thus far.

So then, what now?

I’ll explain further down what it means for your portfolio, but I don’t for one second buy the doom and gloom. I think it’s just been delayed.

Not only do I NOT think Bitcoin is done - I think a Q4 resurgence is nigh and 2026 will be the year of the Golden Bull.

If you’re transfixed by the meteoric rise of Gold then you’re not alone.

The queues in Australia and in Asia to buy Bullion suggest this rally is capturing sentiment.

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