Our Exponential Age Portfolio is Raging. Have you missed the surge? - (Premium)

From Software to Scarcity - The Great Rotation Has Begun (Premium)

Today's Core Points:

• The Exponential Age thesis we published in November is playing out in real-time

• Capital is rotating from software abundance to hardware scarcity

• Energy crisis accelerating trends we predicted months ago

• Updated portfolio positioning for the infrastructure build-out ahead

• Why deflation and inflation are about to collide

PREMIUM NEWSLETTER FOR PAYING SUBSCRIBERS (Released every Thursday).

Hey all,

Back in November 2025, we published something most traditional and Crypto investors ignored: The Exponential Age Portfolio Strategy. View here

At the time, everyone was chasing software stocks, S&P returns, and the same tired tech plays that had worked for a decade. Meanwhile, it was clear Bitcoin and Crypto were moving into winter, so we pivoted.

We bet on hardware. On scarcity. On the physical infrastructure required to power the AI revolution. On energy, robotics, quantum computing, and hard money assets - and waiting for Bitcoin to have its turn.

People thought we were early. Turns out, we were right on time.

Fast forward to today, and the world just shifted beneath our feet. The US Iran war has wiped out 30% of global energy supply. Semiconductor shortages are choking AI build-outs. And capital is flooding into exactly what we called: scarce, productive, hard assets and infrastructure.

This isn't luck. This is what happens when you position before consensus.

Today, I'm walking you through what we got right, what surprised us, and where the exponential age portfolio goes from here. Because if you thought the first few months were good, you haven't seen anything yet.

Let's get into it.

The Thesis: What We Called in November

When we published the Exponential Age report, the core bet was simple:

Exponential technologies + unprecedented monetary debasement = explosive returns in five critical themes.

Those themes were:

1. AI & Future Tech - Infrastructure, not just software

2. Quantum Computing - Early positioning in the next computational paradigm

3. Robotics & Automation - Physical AI meeting the real world

4. Next-Generation Energy - Solar and nuclear as the only scalable solutions

5. Hard Money Assets - Gold, Bitcoin, Silver as debasement hedges

The convergence thesis was clear: AI requires massive energy. Energy requires infrastructure. Infrastructure requires capital. And capital gets debased when governments print money to fund it all.

We are positioned at the intersection of technology advancement and monetary expansion. The combination, we said, would be explosive.

Here's what's happened since.

The Scorecard: How the Portfolio Performed

Let's look at the numbers. These are the returns since we published the report in late November 2025 through today:

AI & Future Tech

• ARTY (iShares Future AI & Tech ETF): +30.5%

• NVIDIA: +15%
  

  

Why it's working: AI capex is accelerating. Major tech firms are heading toward $200B+ in AI spending for 2026. NVIDIA's Blackwell chips remain supply-constrained, and hyperscalers are locking in multi-year contracts. ARTY captures the entire value chain—chips, infrastructure, networking—and it's firing on all cylinders.

Quantum Computing

• QTUM (Defiance Quantum ETF): +20%

Why it's working: Quantum is transitioning from research to commercialization. Google's Willow chip announcement accelerated institutional interest. Pure-play quantum names like Rigetti and IonQ are seeing partnerships with AWS, Microsoft, and Azure for cloud quantum access. This is still speculative, but the asymmetric opportunity is real.

Robotics & Automation

• ARKQ (ARK Autonomous Tech & Robotics): +20%

• Tesla: -9%
  

  

Why ARKQ is up: Drone warfare from the Iran conflict has turbocharged defense automation spending. Companies like Kratos Defense, AeroVironment, and Palantir are benefiting from government contracts. Industrial automation is also accelerating as companies deploy robotics to combat rising labour costs.

Why Tesla is down: Capex bottlenecks and semiconductor supply issues from the war. Musk himself said the world is "massively short semiconductors"—and Tesla's ambitious Optimus and FSD roadmaps are running into supply chain reality. Near-term headwinds, but the long-term thesis (robotics, EVs, AI) remains intact.

Energy: Solar & Nuclear

• TAN (Invesco Solar ETF): +19.5%

• NLR (VanEck Uranium & Nuclear ETF): +15%

Why it's working: This is the big one. The Iran war wiped out 30% of global energy supply—oil, LNG, critical minerals, fertilizer, helium. Energy scarcity is no longer a theory. It's reality.

Solar and nuclear are the only technologies that can scale to meet AI's power demands while satisfying geopolitical and ESG mandates. I also see huge upside for fossil fuel focussed picks but haven’t settled on anything here. Tech giants are locking in nuclear capacity for data centers. Utility-scale solar deployments are accelerating globally. And uranium supply constraints are creating pricing tailwinds.

Energy isn't just performing. It's becoming the trade of the decade.

What Surprised Us (And What It Means)

We got the themes right. But no one saw the war coming.

The Iran conflict has fundamentally reshaped global supply chains. We're not just talking about oil. We're talking about:

• 30% of global LNG supply offline

• Critical minerals (lithium, cobalt, rare earths) constrained

• Fertilizer shortages driving food inflation

• Helium (yes, helium) supply disruptions affecting chip manufacturing

This isn't a temporary shock. This is a structural rebalancing of global energy capacity with resource rich nations like the US, Russia and Australia in the box seat. And it's turbocharging every thesis we outlined in November.

The playbook has accelerated:

• Scarcity-based investments are no longer early. They're essential.

• Debt and money printing will surge to hold economies together.

• AI and automation build-outs will slow in the near term due to supply constraints, but the long-term demand only intensifies.

Here's the kicker: We're heading into an inflationary crisis followed by deflation like we've never seen.

And since you can't print oil, energy, or semiconductors, the only way out is to build and debase.

The Macro Setup: Inflation Meets Deflation

Let's talk about what's coming.

Kevin Warsh, the new Fed Chair, just made it crystal clear why rates are going lower:

"AI is going to make almost everything cost less. We're at the front end of a productivity boom. Economic growth won't be inflationary—we're in the early innings of a structural decline in prices."

Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and Stanley Druckenmiller all expect AI to be strongly deflationary.

But here's the paradox: AI deflation requires massive inflationary inputs.

You can't build AI infrastructure without:

• Energy (inflationary due to supply shocks)

• Semiconductors (inflationary due to shortages)

• Critical minerals (inflationary due to geopolitical disruption)

• Labour and capital (inflationary due to scarcity)

Elon Musk says the world is "massively short semiconductors"—requiring trillions of dollars worth of build-out. His Terafab project is already moving at "light speed," with suppliers scrambling to provide estimates. The goal? Begin silicon manufacturing by 2029 and scale aggressively to meet AI demand.

Here's the reality: We're facing an inflationary crisis (energy, resources, semiconductors) followed by deflationary productivity gains (AI, automation, robotics).

And since you can't print energy or chips, the only response is debt and money printing to fund the build-out.

Raising rates won't solve this. It'll make it worse.

The trade? 

Position in assets that benefit from both sides of the equation:

• Hard assets that appreciate during debasement (Bitcoin, gold, energy, infrastructure)

• Productive technologies that capture deflationary productivity gains (AI, robotics, automation)

This is the exponential age in a nutshell.

Where the Portfolio Goes From Here

If the first few months validated the thesis, the next 12-24 months will define generational wealth creation.

Get your 30days FREE Trial and read the rest.