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Bitcoin has re-fuelled for its next major expansion. Here are the 3 things I need to see before it truly fires.

Hey all,

Let me say the quiet part out loud: a new bull market has begun - or, it will very soon.

I know how that sounds right now. We've been bleeding since the $125k top back in October — months of lower lows, sentiment on the floor, and just about everyone you follow calling for more pain. 

Being constructive on Bitcoin today feels almost embarrassing. 

But that's the thing about how cycles actually turn. They don't turn with a bang. It moves like an oil tanker. They turn quietly, at the point of maximum discouragement, while the crowd is focussed on another drastic low. 

The snap, crackle and pop of signals firing underneath a price that hasn't caught up yet. It gets missed by most people precisely because it's so quiet.

The foundations are sound and sellers are very tired. In July we have seen:  

To see why I think the fuel is finally arriving, you have to understand why the last run was running on empty.

Bitcoin has always been a liquidity animal. It does its best work when there's a flood of cheap money in the system looking for a home. It turns a grind into a genuine expansion. It's been true every cycle.

Here's what almost nobody clocked about the run to $125k: it happened without that fuel. Since 2021, the classic backdrop — cooling inflation, an expanding Fed balance sheet, easy money sloshing around — never showed up. Inflation stayed sticky. The Fed kept the taps off. And the speculative money that normally finds its way into crypto got swallowed by the AI and memory boom — the animal spirits went to semiconductors, not to us.

So what drove us all the way to $125k? Two things, and neither was cheap money: structural ETF demand — a brand-new, powerful buyer — and the Trump policy tailwind. It did all the heavy lifting, with no liquidity flood behind it.

Then came the bear. And here's why I'm writing to you today.

For the first time since 2021, the missing piece — liquidity — is itching to fly.

There’s three SIMPLE things I need to see confirm before I'll say it's go time. One of them has just started to move. The other two are still ahead of us.

I'll break down all three below — what they are, why they matter, and exactly what I'm watching on each.