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The market is screaming. One signal just fired that we haven't seen since November 2022.

Hey all,

Let me open with something uncomfortable: right now, being bullish on Bitcoin feels stupid.

Every timeline is red. Every second post is a lower target. The voices calling for a supercycle have gone quiet (me included), and the loudest people in the room are the ones telling you it's over.

Happy to admit I got the early bull thesis wrong - the 4-year cycle reigns supreme. It is important to also recognise how critical it is to remain dynamic as an investor. When my invalidation level was taken I switched bias then and there - no ifs or buts. The good news - we are now closer to the end of this than the beginning, no matter what thesis you hold. Red Markets don’t last forever and bears (as they have always done) get greedy.   

I've been doing this long enough to know what cycle lows look and feel like. 

Not "close to." Not "probably." I mean the specific emotional texture of the moment where the market shakes out everyone who was never going to make it through a cycle in the first place. Fear does the heavy lifting. Discipline gets tested. And the people who understand where we are in the cycle stop reacting and start paying attention.

Because underneath all the panic, the network itself is telling a very different story than the price is, and moreover even the technicals are shifting but you have to know where to look.

Current Price: ~$60,100

The Setup: Price is bleeding via massive ETF outflows and sentiment is on the floor — Fear & Greed is sitting at 10 (consistent for months now) and the mood matches. But zoom out from the candles and look at who's actually holding.

Long-term holders — coins that haven't moved in 155+ days — are still growing their share of supply. While the market panic-sells into every red daily, the strongest hands on the network are quietly doing the opposite. That's not the behaviour you see at tops. It's the behaviour that shows up at the point of maximum discouragement & opportunity.

This is the part of the cycle that separates the sophisticated investor from the punter. Punters sell fear. Sophisticated investors recognise it.

I'm not here to tell you to the cent the exact bottom — nobody can. But the on-chain picture is the cleanest I've seen in a long time, and it does not match the mood.

Which brings me to the one thing that made me write this today.

There's a momentum signal on Bitcoin that just triggered for the first time since FTX. Not "since earlier this year." Since November 2022 — the literal bottom of the last bear market.

I'll show you exactly what it is, why it's firing on more than one timeframe at once, and what happened the last time we saw it, below.

The Quantum Countdown: What Every Crypto Holder Should Know Before Q-Day

The headlines have been hard to miss, and some of it is warranted while a lot of it is overblown.

Our new report gives you the middle ground: what the research actually says about quantum computing and Bitcoin, what it does not, and the calm, practical steps everyday investors can take right now.

No fear, no hype, just the real picture, explained the way we would explain it to a friend over coffee.